Projecting 2018 starters for every QB-needy team
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Dec 14, 2017









Mike SandoESPN Senior Writer

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Projecting the 2018 starting NFL quarterbacks for 10 teams in flux at the position was not easy with 90 days until free agency and 132 days until the draft.

It sure was fun.

Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, AJ McCarron and Andy Dalton are among the veteran quarterbacks who could conceivably be on the move this coming offseason. Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield headline the draft-eligible options who will add to the intrigue. Smith's particular combination of skill, price and realistic availability makes him a logical choice in multiple spots, one reason I've included alternate scenarios for each team.

I've put together projections and alternate projections for the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Denver Broncos, New York Jets and half a dozen other teams, sprinkling in commentary and analysis from several league insiders.

You can take these to the bank -- but don't try to deposit them just yet.
Arizona Cardinals

Projected 2018 starter: Carson Palmer as a bridge to Josh Allen
Alternate projection: Kirk Cousins

The Cardinals missed out on Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft when Kansas City jumped over them in a trade with Houston. With Palmer a likely candidate for retirement either this year or next, the time has come for Arizona to move aggressively.

My initial scenario has Palmer returning for the final year of his contract after an arm injury forced him to the sideline for much of this season. He would be returning with Larry Fitzgerald, who recently extended his deal through 2018. Coach Bruce Arians also would return, and if Palmer faltered or were injured, Allen or another rookie would take over.

If Palmer opts out, I have the Cardinals turning to Cousins either in free agency or via trade. Arizona has moved decisively for quarterbacks in the past. The team sent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb in 2011. Palmer came from Oakland at a lower price. Landing Cousins would cost more.
Buffalo Bills

Projected 2018 starter: Alex Smith
Alternate projection: Baker Mayfield

The Bills own additional picks in each of the first two rounds of the 2018 draft. They acquired the additional first-rounder from Kansas City in the trade to draft Mahomes. Why not send another pick back to the Chiefs for Smith?

Buffalo also could draft a quarterback such as Mayfield to compete with Nathan Peterman, whom they like but cannot realistically bank on based on early returns.

"Are they going to start a rookie in the coach's second year, go through the growing pains and get fired?" an insider asked.

It's clear the Bills aren't interested in paying Tyrod Taylor the $16 million he would receive in 2018 under his existing deal. Smith is set to earn $17 million in 2018, which is the final year of his current deal with the Chiefs.

"Alex would be a good fit," an insider from the AFC East said. "It's a West Coast zone-blocking system and Alex is mobile enough to run the naked. [Sean] McDermott could promise him a decent defense. Alex fits that bill."
Cleveland Browns

Projected 2018 starter: Alex Smith
Alternate projection: Sam Darnold

The Browns have notoriously underinvested in the position. Expect that to change in a big way under new general manager John Dorsey.
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"Cleveland will overdo the quarterback thing," an insider said. "They will get a veteran and they will get a free agent."

Dorsey was with Green Bay when the team acquired Brett Favre, then drafted a series of quarterbacks -- Ty Detmer, Aaron Brooks, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Rodgers -- while Favre was still the starter. Dorsey was with Kansas City when the team acquired Smith and then paid top backup money to Chase Daniel. Dorsey was still with the Chiefs earlier this year when the team traded up in the draft's first round to land Mahomes even as Smith was coming off a productive season.

In Cleveland, Dorsey is inheriting more than enough draft ammunition to acquire Smith from the Chiefs if Kansas City transitions to Mahomes. There will be other veteran options for the Chiefs, and when I asked an NFL exec for a veteran projection, Cousins was his choice (Missouri's Drew Lock was his choice among college prospects).

Under my scenario, the Chiefs would acquire a veteran Dorsey knows well, and they would use one of their two top-five picks in the 2018 draft for the quarterback of their choice -- presumably Darnold or UCLA's Josh Rosen.
Denver Broncos

Projected 2018 starter: Andy Dalton (or AJ McCarron)
Alternate projection: Case Keenum as a bridge to Josh Allen

The Broncos' disastrous season could lead to a coaching change, but if Vance Joseph gets another year, why not reunite the former Cincinnati assistant with whichever Bengals quarterback Denver could acquire?

Denver could be drafting early enough to land, say, Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, whose stature and arm strength could appeal to GM John Elway. If Elway weren't quite ready to give up on 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch, he would need to find a veteran to upgrade the position. If not Dalton, why not Keenum? The Chiefs presumably wouldn't trade Smith to their archrival, and Cousins might be on the expensive side.

"Denver has to have a veteran because they can't look at No. 58 [Von Miller] and say, 'We are going to start this rookie with the fifth pick,'" an insider said. "You cannot tell those defensive guys that. They will mutiny. They have to find a veteran somewhere. I don't know if they would spend for Cousins. You could see them taking someone like [Case] Keenum or [Sam] Bradford if he were healthy, but none of those guys excite anybody."

The Bengals already have been involved in trade talks regarding McCarron. Dalton has one year and $13.7 million in salary left on his contract. They could be in the market for a new coach, and if they weren't sure about extending Dalton's deal, they could plug in McCarron as a cost-effective replacement, depending upon an impending ruling that will determine whether McCarron will be a restricted or unrestricted free agent.
Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected 2018 starter: Eli Manning
Alternate projection: Blake Bortles

The Giants rocked Manning's world when they benched him for Geno Smith. Now they'll be breaking in a new coaching staff with a new front office. Why not head south for the winter of his career? He might not like everything Tom Coughlin tells him, but at least he could trust it.

"I think there is something endearing about Coughlin for a quarterback because when he tells you how it is, that is how it is going to be," an insider said. "They will say, 'We will pay you, you will play two years, you will mentor this guy, we will spoil you with the defense and run game, and we have some good coaches here who you know.' And that is the way it will be.

"Coughlin is not making small talk, not calling you on your birthday or asking you about your wife. It is all business, just how Eli likes it. Plus, Eli could get out of the media circus and hide out in a no-income-tax state with great weather."

The Jaguars might have to trade for Manning to make it happen. In the meantime, the Jaguars have a few more games to make a final decision on Bortles, who would earn $19 million next season if he returns under his rookie deal.
Kansas City Chiefs

Projected 2018 starter: Patrick Mahomes
Alternate projection: Alex Smith

Smith is 10th in QBR, second in passer rating, fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in touchdown passes, second in touchdown-to-interception ratio and second in completions on passes traveling 20-plus yards downfield. Will that be enough for the Chiefs to keep Mahomes on the bench for another season? It seems like it should be, but the Chiefs' excitement for Mahomes could still drive this decision, particularly with a chance to get value for Smith right now.

"If they make the playoffs and especially if they win in the playoffs, it's tougher to trade Alex," an insider said. "Alex is a team leader. He is the one in the huddle, the one reading defenses, making checks. Those things are hard for a young guy. Look how long Aaron Rodgers sat. Alex is not Brett Favre, but from a coach's standpoint -- and especially an offensive head coach in Andy Reid who is really a quarterback coach -- you like to have that security."
Minnesota Vikings

Projected 2018 starter: Case Keenum
Alternate projection: Teddy Bridgewater

The Vikings are basically waiting to see how Keenum finishes before deciding how to proceed beyond this season. So far, he has been so much better than anticipated.

Keenum's numbers in 11 starts this season far outpace the numbers Bridgewater produced during his 11 most recent starts. Keenum has a 17-9 edge in touchdown passes. He has taken 13 fewer sacks while attempting 35 passes per game, nine more attempts than Bridgewater averaged. Keenum has the edge in passer rating (95.2 to 89.1) and Total QBR (71.1 to 53.2). Keenum has two additional interceptions (7-5) but a similar interception rate.

"I think they will keep Keenum," an insider said. "They have [Sam] Bradford with Joe Namath's knees and Bridgewater, who had not developed before his injury and was reliant on one of the all-time great backs of the past 30 years [Adrian Peterson], just like Christian Ponder. Keenum looks like he can do more, but they will use the next three to four games to evaluate him."

Tyrod Taylor is another consideration. The Vikings showed some interest in him as a free agent in 2015, but Bridgewater was their starter and Taylor wanted a better shot at starting. Taylor's efficiency and specifically his turnover avoidance could carry some appeal.
New York Giants

Projected 2018 starter: Eli Manning as a bridge to Josh Rosen
Alternate projection: Josh Rosen, with Manning traded to Jacksonville

This projection has the Giants sticking with Manning for another year and using him as a bridge to whichever quarterback they draft, presumably among the top few overall picks. Could they move on from Manning? They sure could. They already began that process by benching him, however briefly. But the smarter move could be to keep him and draft his replacement.

The Giants have not yet hired a GM, but with former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi advising ownership on the hire, my projection makes Dave Gettleman a logical choice for the role. Accorsi hired Gettleman when Accorsi was the team's GM. Years later, when the Panthers made Gettleman their GM, they did so on Accorsi's suggestion. Accorsi acquired Manning. Gettleman collected two Super Bowl rings during his Manning-era Giants tenure, so perhaps he'd be more apt to value Manning than another GM would be.
New York Jets

Projected 2018 starter: Josh McCown as a bridge to Josh Allen
Alternate projection: Alex Smith

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Where the Jets fall in the 2018 draft order will affect how confidently they can feel about selecting a quarterback early. Smith and Cousins were two veteran options insiders mentioned when asked for their projections.

If the Jets wind up drafting early enough to select Allen or another first-round quarterback, why not bring back McCown in a bridge role? He was at least serviceable (52.6 QBR) and arguably better than that (94.5 passer rating). The organization knows him well. It would be an easy sell if the Jets came away from the draft with a clear franchise quarterback. Otherwise, they could do much worse than Smith. The Jets have an extra second-round choice acquired from Seattle in the Sheldon Richardson trade if they need to barter.

"Cleveland and the Giants will take quarterbacks near the top, and then someone will trade to five or six for another one," an insider forecasted. "The Jets can stand pat with McCown and put more around him, but that would be really hard to do. I think those three guys they have will be gone, which is why I thought Cousins for them."






Washington Redskins

Projected 2018 starter: Kirk Cousins
Alternate projection: Andy Dalton

NFL teams generally do not part with highly productive quarterbacks in their primes, which is why my projection has Cousins remaining the Redskins' starter, one way or another.

Keeping Cousins could mean paying him a projected $28 million (transition tag) or $35 million (franchise tag) in 2018. Are those figures prohibitive for a team that once signed Albert Haynesworth for $100 million ($32 million was paid out)? The Redskins are paying $23.9 million to Cousins this year. They obviously think he's worth big money, even if they have not been able to reach agreement on a long-term contract.

Dalton is my fallback for his connections to Redskins coach Jay Gruden (McCarron and Gruden did not overlap in Cincy).