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NFL - Projecting the chances of players in past three draft classes being franchise quarterbacks

by Aaron Schatz on (original: http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/20292080/nfl-projecting-chances-players-three-draft-classes-being-franchise-quarterbacks)

Developing a long-term franchise quarterback is the most important part of building an NFL roster. Yet in the impulsive, Twitter-obsessed world of modern sports, NFL fans give up on young players far too easily. Gone are the days when we had the patience to watch starters develop.

On the other hand, a lot of rookies start out pretty bad and never get any better. How can we tell how much hope should be inspired by our favorite team's young quarterback?

That's the idea behind Football Outsiders' new QB Hope Index. We've taken every drafted quarterback since 1997 and looked at what variables helped determine whether that player became a long-term, successful NFL starter. The QB Hope Index accounts for draft position, on-field performance and a player's roster status (in other words, if he's not starting, who is he sitting behind?). It also incorporates age and our QBASE college quarterback projections.

The QB Hope Index formula changes from first to second to third year, as we actually get to see these players perform on the NFL stage. We've run it below for every drafted quarterback from the past three years who is currently on an NFL roster.

One of the surprising results of our QB Hope Index might be that even the quarterbacks who have been extraordinarily successful early on do not come out with a 100 percent chance of long-term success. The record of the recent past features a few quarterbacks who started their careers strong and then fizzled. Robert Griffin III seemed destined for greatness after a strong rookie year, and he's looking for a job right now. Josh Freeman had 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his second season, yet his career collapsed. This probably isn't the future for Dak Prescott or Jameis Winston, but we can't ignore the possibility.
Class of 2016

Of course, a quarterback's rookie performance will help predict the likelihood that he becomes a successful NFL starter. But after one year in the league, draft position still plays a strong role in a young quarterback's forecast. A number of high draft picks developed into stars despite barely playing as rookies, including Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Daunte Culpepper.
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However, a particularly bad performance as a rookie can cancel the effect of high draft position. Thirteen first-rounders between 1997 and 2013 were worth less than minus-250 DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) by FO metrics, and only three of those quarterbacks developed into long-term NFL starters: Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford and Donovan McNabb.

A couple of other indicators can help breathe hope into young quarterbacks -- or take it away. Passers from the offensively oriented Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences generally develop into NFL starters less often. Perhaps they are overdrafted because they look so good against bad college defenses? Another variable that matters is age. Many of the quarterbacks who developed despite poor rookie seasons were particularly young. Smith, Stafford and Michael Vick were all 21-year-old rookies. This relative youth is a reason to be hopeful about Jared Goff despite his abysmal rookie season.

It even gives Jets fans a bit of a reason to be hopeful about Christian Hackenberg, but remember: This is a statistical formula, so it's agnostic about how good players look on film or how many training camp passes they sail over receivers and onto the heads of reporters.

When it comes to lower-round picks, a quarterback who didn't play at all as a rookie has a better chance of development than a rookie who was forced to play but was below average. The unknown is better than a small amount of negative evidence.
QB Hope Index: Class of 2016 Player Draft pedigree Chance of
franchise QB
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys Rd 4, 135 overall 82%
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles Rd 1, 2 overall 73%
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams Rd 1, 1 overall 22%
Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos Rd 1, 26 overall 21%
Christian Hackenberg, New York Jets Rd 2, 51 overall 16%
Brandon Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars Rd 6, 201 overall 8%
Jeff Driskel, Cincinnati Bengals Rd 6, 207 overall 8%
Cardale Jones, Los Angeles Chargers Rd 4, 139 overall 8%
Jake Rudock, Detroit Lions Rd 6, 191 overall 8%
Nate Sudfeld, Washington Redskins Rd 6, 187 overall 8%
Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots Rd 3, 91 overall 7%
Brandon Doughty, Miami Dolphins Rd 7, 223 overall 5%
Connor Cook, Oakland Raiders Rd 4, 100 overall 5%
Cody Kessler, Cleveland Browns Rd 3, 93 overall 3%
Kevin Hogan, Cleveland Browns Rd 5, 162 overall 2%
Class of 2015

Once a quarterback has been in the league for two seasons, his performance on the field is by far the most important factor in determining his chances of having success as a starter. The No. 2 factor after performance on the field is just being on the field. By this point, a high draft pick who will develop into a regular starter has either taken over as his team's starting quarterback or is sitting on the bench behind a successful older backup.

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This heir-apparent role does not guarantee success: For every Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, there's a Jeff Lewis sitting behind John Elway or Brock Osweiler sitting behind Peyton Manning. However, this heir-apparent exception demonstrates why winning the Denver starting job is so important for Paxton Lynch's development. Trevor Siemian is no Elway or Manning. It's hard to find a historical example where a young first-round pick in his second season failed to beat out an almost-as-young seventh-round pick for a starting job, and still developed into a long-term NFL starter.

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Lower-round quarterbacks who haven't played much will all have a QB Hope Index under 10 percent after two years. Some of them will develop into starters, but without any on-field performance numbers, it's hard to identify which quarterbacks are diamonds in the rough. We don't know who will turn out to be Tyrod Taylor or Matt Hasselbeck, nor are we sure who will become another J.T. O'Sullivan or Ricky Stanzi.

Our QBASE college projections and the Pac-12/Big 12 factor still play some role in the QB Hope Index for second-year quarterbacks, but the effect is much smaller than after Year 1.
QB Hope Index: Class of 2015 Player Draft pedigree Chance of
franchise QB
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans Rd 1, 2 overall 91%
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rd 1, 1 overall 75%
Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos Rd 7, 250 overall 34%
Garrett Grayson, New Orleans Saints Rd 3, 75 overall 6%
Brett Hundley, Green Bay Packers Rd 5, 147 overall 2%
Sean Mannion, Los Angeles Rams Rd 3, 89 overall 1%
Bryce Petty, New York Jets Rd 4, 103 overall 1%
Class of 2014

By three years in, we have a pretty good idea of who will be a successful NFL starter and who will not. But there are two types of quarterbacks who fall in the area in between, and we happen to have examples of both in the Class of 2014.

First, we have the quarterbacks who have consistently held starting jobs for three years, and have been below average but above replacement level. Quarterbacks who fell into this group include David Carr, Ryan Tannehill and Mark Sanchez. Blake Bortles qualifies here: After a terrible rookie year, he was slightly above replacement level in both 2015 and 2016. His future could go either way depending on how well he plays in 2017.

In the other in-between group are quarterbacks who have been sitting on the bench, waiting for a shot. Some of them finally got a limited chance in their third season and played well, but without much of a track record to go on, it's hard to know whether they will fully develop. Marc Bulger, Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Kolb all fit into this category historically, and our current example is Jimmy Garoppolo of the Patriots.

Teddy Bridgewater is a special case. Our study group from the past 20 years includes a number of quarterbacks who started most of their first two seasons and then lost their jobs, such as Shaun King, Cade McNown and Geno Smith. But there are no other examples of quarterbacks who started for two years and then were sidelined their entire third season due to injury.

The QB Hope Index sees Bridgewater's empty third season and compares him to quarterbacks who disappeared after two years. However, if we substitute his 2015 stats instead of his 2016 stats, Bridgewater's QB Hope Index would zoom up from 18 percent to 68 percent. If he's healthy enough to play again, that seems like a more accurate measurement of his future prospects.
QB Hope Index: Class of 2014 Player Draft pedigree Chance of
franchise QB
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders Rd 2, 36 overall 93%
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars Rd 1, 3 overall 57%
Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots Rd 2, 62 overall 43%
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings Rd 1, 32 overall 18%
AJ McCarron, Cincinnati Bengals Rd 5, 164 overall 8%
Tom Savage, Houston Texans Rd 4, 135 overall 4%
David Fales, Miami Dolphins Rd 6, 183 overall 3%

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