NBA draft stock watch: Big risers, fallers in new rankings
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
8:12 AM ET

Jonathan GivonyESPN

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We're halfway through the college basketball season, and with NCAA conference play underway, we have plenty of data points at our disposal to start to draw some real conclusions about how this NBA draft class is shaping up.

Our top-100 prospect rankings have already undergone plenty of changes, and there are a number of players we have our eyes on who will continue to move up or down the board depending on how they fare over the next six weeks. We've already discussed Trae Young -- who moved all the way up to No. 6 -- in considerable depth a few weeks ago, but here are five other players who moved the needle and deserve more ink than they've received in this space up until now.
Daniel Gafford | 6-11 | Fr. | C | Arkansas

Overall ranking: No. 13

Having committed to Arkansas after his freshman year of high school, and never having left the tiny town of El Dorado on the Arkansas/Louisiana border, Gafford didn't come into college with the same buzz as some of his peers.

Nevertheless, he has outplayed his No. 36 RSCI recruiting ranking significantly, averaging an impressive 21 points, 11 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per 40 minutes. Gafford has been making strides as his freshman year moves along, and he was a major catalyst in Arkansas' comeback win over Missouri this past weekend.
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Arkansas outlasts Mizzou 65-63

The Hogs bounce back against the Tigers, defending their home court to move to 2-3 in SEC play.

He's still very rough around the edges, particularly in terms of strength, experience and polish, which manifests itself in foul trouble, bricked free throws and occasional lapses in decision making on both ends of the floor. Still, few players in college basketball share his physical upside as well as his combination of hands, touch, finishing ability, rim-protection and competitiveness.

Gafford is a top-shelf athlete: fluid, mobile and coordinated, as well as exceptionally quick off his feet. His balance and body control are simply outstanding, but his ability to spring off the floor effortlessly for finishes makes him a magnet for fouls. He regularly beats opposing big men down the court and is an outstanding target for lobs and pick-and-roll passes, as he has a huge catching radius and can finish from impressive vantage points due to his reach and quick-twitch spring.

His athleticism translates to the defensive end too, where he's a legit rim protector already and has significant room for improvement as he learns the nuances of positioning and rotations, areas that leave something to be desired at times due to his average awareness. He shows potential switching onto guards due to his quick feet and long arms, even if he doesn't quite know exactly what he's doing at the moment.

In a draft that appears to be severely devoid of upside outside the top 10 or 12 picks, Gafford is making a strong case to be considered a potential lottery-caliber prospect and has moved up our rankings appropriately. He will have to continue to make strides as the year moves on, but he seems to fit the mold of what NBA teams are looking for in big men prospects, with significant potential to continue to improve.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 6-6 | Fr. | PG | Kentucky

Overall ranking: No. 18

An injury to Quade Green has made Gilgeous-Alexander Kentucky's lone ball handler and point guard the past three games, putting the Canadian freshman under the microscope, accelerating his development and giving NBA scouts a raw, unfiltered look at his strengths and weaknesses as a draft prospect.

Only the ninth-highest-rated high school recruit on Kentucky's roster, Gilgeous-Alexander is starting to gain steam as potentially its best long-term NBA talent. In what is shaping up as a somewhat disappointing season for Kentucky -- coming into 2017-18 rated as a unanimous top-five team and now falling to 35th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) after a bad loss to South Carolina -- the results might tell us just as much about Kentucky (and this draft class) as it does about Gilgeous-Alexander.

Somewhat of a blank slate prospect, Gilgeous-Alexander is intriguing first and foremost due to his outstanding physical tools. He stands a towering 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan that will allow him to guard any of the wing or backcourt positions as his narrow 182-pound frame fills out. As an athlete, he's more fluid than explosive, but he plays the game at a unique speed that has increasingly allowed him to get to different spots on the floor as his comfort level with the college game has grown.

Sporting a high handle and average decision-making skills, Kentucky's half-court offense has been somewhat of an adventure with him running the show full-time. Some of that is due to the team's extreme lack of spacing, as he has been forced to navigate a severely congested floor that often has three, four or even five non-shooters at times -- a far cry from how most basketball teams play these days, particularly in the NBA.

Nevertheless, Gilgeous-Alexander's fluidity, creativity and willingness to get others involved has led to some impressive moments this season. His ability to change speeds is intriguing, as is his size and unselfishness finding teammates off the dribble or over the top of the defense, using both sides of the floor. He might have some untapped athleticism to grow into as his frame fills out, as he shows some unexpected bursts at times accelerating off pick-and-rolls, getting to the rim and finishing acrobatically from different vantage points thanks to his length.

What will really open up Gilgeous-Alexander's offense long-term is improving his ability to make shots consistently off the dribble, as he has converted just 11 of 34 attempts (32 percent) on the season. He has been better shooting with his feet set but clearly has a ways to go still, especially in terms of improving the quickness and fluidity of his release. The fact that he's shooting 82 percent from the free-throw line this season, and has done that throughout his career, is a good sign for his long-term projection.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off-the-dribble shooting prior to college, career 36 percent on 154 attempts. Krossover

Gilgeous-Alexander won't be asked to carry anywhere near the offensive load in the NBA that he has for a skill and shot-creation deprived Kentucky this season. In fact, it's very likely he will get significant minutes operating off the ball, alongside a more proficient and natural shot-creator and scorer, which is easy to envision with his multipositional defensive versatility.

It's this end of the floor where he really shines, as his length, quick feet and terrific intensity make him an absolute lock-down defender already at the college level. He ranks in the top five among top-100 prospects in steals and would probably rank the same in charges and deflections if we had that data. He has been forced to expend less energy the past few games manning Kentucky's stagnant offense full time, while playing as many minutes as he can handle, causing him to drop off somewhat here.

In what has long been considered a down year for guards, Gilgeous-Alexander is making a strong case to be considered the third-best NCAA prospect in the group after Young and Collin Sexton. Despite his lack of offensive polish, he has moved himself into the late-lottery/mid-first-round conversation, but he will have to show scouts that he can help Kentucky finish the season strong to not be labeled strictly a long-term project.
Jontay Porter | 6-11 | Fr. | PF/C | Missouri

Overall ranking: No. 30

Not the Porter brother most NBA teams expected to be honing in on this season, Michael's younger brother Jontay has nevertheless established himself as a legit prospect in his own right, helping Missouri stay afloat with what has been an impressive season thus far, all things considered.

The fourth-youngest player in college basketball, Porter made a late decision to skip his senior year of high school and reclassify, joining his brother and father, who is on the coaching staff. He got off to somewhat of a slow start but has picked up significant steam entering SEC play, with the exception of this past weekend, when he was outplayed by an athletic Arkansas team (led by Gafford).

Porter's body type is different from his brother's, as he has somewhat of a doughy frame, with wide hips and just average run/jump athleticism. While he's never going to win any dunk contests, he moves very well overall, as he's highly coordinated with excellent body control, which is one of the reasons he always has been a good rebounder, shot-blocker and ball thief, despite the fact that he's neither exceptionally long nor explosive.

Porter's skill level is what makes him such an intriguing fit in modern basketball, as he has a very high basketball IQ, as evidenced by his stellar 18 percent assist rate, second best among big men in our top 100. He does an impressive job of using skip passes and operating out of short-roll situations and dribble handoffs, especially for someone his age. Missouri runs a decent amount of offense through him, and he has responded impressively.

Porter is also a capable shooter, hitting 36 percent of his 3-pointers on the season. While the sample size leaves something to be desired, data from high school and AAU indicates he's been making 3-pointers since he was a 15-year-old. He's 95 of 286 from beyond the arc (33 percent) in 77 non-NCAA games in the Krossover database, so he's always been capable of stretching the floor and is making 84 percent of his free throws this season to boot. Continuing to improve this part of his game will be a major key long-term, as he does not possess the most fluid release.
Jontay Porter shot-chart prior to college. Krossover

The area where NBA teams have the biggest question marks about Porter is on defense. His stats (1.9 steals, 3.9 blocks per 40 minutes) are fantastic but don't really match up with the eye test, especially when going up against other athletic big men, like Gafford last weekend. He starts at the 4 for Missouri but looks better suited at the 5 defensively, as he does not cover ground or change directions on the fly very well. He often looks flat-footed attempting to step out on pick-and-rolls, gambles trying to get in the passing lanes or biting on pump-fakes, and gets burned off the dribble a lot more than you'd hope. His 7-foot wingspan isn't ideal for an NBA big man, but his 9-foot-1 standing reach -- according to Missouri -- does help.

Porter's age, high block/steal/assist and rebounding rates, as well as his strong shooting percentages make him somewhat of an analytics darling and should continue to bring plenty of attention his way. Considering his youth and how weak the 2019 NBA draft class is shaping up, it might not be the worst idea for him to think about coming back for another season to try to make a run at being a top-20 pick. Leading Missouri to the NCAA tournament and playing well in his four games in the next month against the likes of Kentucky and Texas A&M might change the equation somewhat, though, so we'll have to see how things play out.
Robert Williams | 6-10 | So. | C | Texas A&M

Overall ranking: No. 12

Williams surprised many by passing up the chance to be a lottery pick in the 2017 draft to return to Texas A&M for his sophomore year. So far, that gamble hasn't paid off.
Editor's Picks

Source: NBA prospects denied by G League

Several first-round prospects for the 2018 NBA draft have been told they are ineligible to play for the G League after inquiring about playing this season, a league source told ESPN.
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Williams was suspended for the first three games of the season (one an exhibition) and missed three other games so far due to a variety of ailments. A&M is just 1-5 in the SEC and will have to right the ship to ensure it makes the NCAA tournament. Even when he has played, his offensive production hasn't gone to the next level, as his scoring rate has fallen off dramatically from 19 to 14.6 points per 40, and even his free-throw percentage has gone in the wrong direction, from 59 to 52 percent. NBA scouts were hoping to see Williams improve from his freshman to sophomore year, and so far the results have been mixed.

Part of that is due to his role, which stylistically couldn't have been designed any worse given his strengths. Texas A&M's most important player continues to be junior Tyler Davis, an old-school big man who clogs up the paint and is at his best operating with his back to the basket. It has been difficult for Davis to share the court effectively with Williams, who at 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, with a 7-foot-5½ wingspan is a natural center as well and doesn't have the skill level or feel for the game to operate on the perimeter consistently. Playing away from the basket minimizes many of the things Williams does best, and he hasn't helped himself by playing with an underwhelming energy level in some of his team's biggest games.

Williams will have to recapture the momentum he lost during the NBA pre-draft process, where teams will be able to get a better feel for how he fits into the modern game. His freakish athleticism, length and body are tailor-made for the workout circuit, and today's NBA in general, and there are plenty of mitigating circumstances that might help NBA teams justify pegging him somewhere in the No. 8-15 range still when big boards are finalized. The fact that he continues to rebound, block shots and finish around the basket at a high rate bodes well for him, and the success of players in his mold who entered the draft with many of the same question marks as Williams -- such as Clint Capela -- helps his cause.
Chandler Hutchison | 6-7 | Sr. | SF | Boise State

Overall ranking: No. 20

After a difficult start to the season, Hutchison has blossomed into one of the best players in college basketball, having put up 44 points in a win over San Diego State just this past weekend. He is currently averaging an impressive 26 points, 11 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per 40 minutes. He ranks in the NCAA's top five in usage rate, thanks in no small part due to his free-throw rate, which ranks fourth among top-100 prospects at more than 10 attempts per 40.

Hutchison looks the part of an NBA wing player, standing 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan and a strong frame that should allow him to play some small-ball power forward, as he often does for Boise State. He's a powerful athlete, capable of changing gears impressively in the open floor, as well as accelerating off pick-and-rolls in the half court. He has great body control and footwork, covering a ton of ground with his first step, and has long strides to help him get deep into the teeth of the defense and draw fouls prolifically.

Once considered overly passive, Hutchison has revved up his aggressiveness in a major way, as evidenced by his high turnover rate (18 percent). His half-court efficiency isn't where it needs to be -- he's converting just 49 percent of his 2-pointers this season -- but part of that is due to Boise State's extreme lack of spacing and overall talent, which has allowed teams to really hone in on stopping him.

His jumper has always been one of the biggest question marks, and outside of his last game, in which he went 7-of-10 from beyond the arc, Hutchison had made just 15 of 44 3-pointers (34 percent) on the season in 15 games. He always has had decent mechanics on his jump shot but never displayed much confidence from the outside, regularly passing up wide-open looks and being the type of player defenses felt comfortable going under on screens due to his lackluster off-the-dribble shooting. It'll be interesting to see how confidently he shoots after his big game against San Diego State, as it's a huge part of his long-term projection. The fact that he's just a career 68 percent free-throw shooter and only 17 percent of his field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc doesn't inspire great confidence.

Hailing from an affluent part of Southern California, Hutchison has long had a reputation among scouts for not being the hardest worker or the toughest player, but he has begun to change that perception with the improvement he has made the past two years. NBA teams will want to see him buy into a role of being a defensive stopper, which he clearly has the potential for, but he'll have to be more physical and intense on that end of the floor to make that a reality.

Every team in the NBA is looking for athletic, long-armed wings, and Hutchison ticks quite a few boxes with his physical profile, shot-creation prowess and the flashes he shows as a passer, shooter and defender. Hutchison has moved into first-round territory and will have a chance to continue to rise if his improved shooting is for real. Unfortunately, the Mountain West Conference has become a one-bid league, and Boise State will need to overcome both San Diego State and Nevada to make the NCAA tournament.
Draft rankings: Top 100
Player Pos Team Age Height Wingspan
1. Luka Doncic PG Real Madrid 18.8 6-8 N/A
2. Deandre Ayton C Arizona 19.4 7-0 7-5
3. Marvin Bagley III PF/C Duke 18.8 6-11 7-0½
4. Mohamed Bamba C Texas 19.6 7-0 7-9
5. Michael Porter Jr. SF/PF Missouri 19.5 6-10 7-0
6. Trae Young PG Oklahoma 19.3 6-2 6-4
7. Jaren Jackson Jr. PF/C Michigan St 18.3 6-10 7-4
8. Collin Sexton PG Alabama 19.0 6-2 6-7
9. Miles Bridges SF/PF Michigan St 19.8 6-6 6-9
10. Mikal Bridges SF Villanova 21.3 6-7 7-1½
11. Kevin Knox SF/PF Kentucky 18.4 6-9 7-0
12. Robert Williams PF/C Texas A&M 20.2 6-9 7-5½
13. Daniel Gafford PF/C Arkansas 19.2 6-11 7-2
14. Wendell Carter Jr. C Duke 18.7 6-10 7-3
15. Dzanan Musa SF Cedevita 18.6 6-9 6-8½
16. Troy Brown SG Oregon 18.4 6-7 7-6
17. Lonnie Walker IV SG Miami FL 19.0 6-4 6-10½
18. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG/SG Kentucky 19.5 6-6 7-0
19. Bruce Brown SG Miami FL 21.4 6-3 6-8½
20. Chandler Hutchison SG Boise St 21.7 6-7 N/A
21. Mitchell Robinson C N/A 19.8 6-11 7-4
22. Anfernee Simons SG Team Breakdown 18.6 6-4 6-7
23. Trevon Duval PG Duke 19.4 6-3 6-3½
24. Hamidou Diallo SG Kentucky 19.4 6-5 7-0
25. Shake Milton PG/SG SMU 21.3 6-6 7-0
26. De'Anthony Melton PG/SG USC 19.6 6-3 6-8
27. Keita Bates-Diop SF Ohio St 21.9 6-7 N/A
28. Brandon McCoy C UNLV 19.6 6-11 7-1½
29. Khyri Thomas SG Creighton 21.6 6-3 N/A
30. Jontay Porter C Missouri 18.1 6-10 7-0
31. Justin Jackson SF/PF Maryland 20.9 6-7 7-3
32. Jarrey Foster SG SMU 21.1 6-6 N/A
33. Rodions Kurucs SF/PF Barcelona 2 19.9 6-10 N/A
34. Jalen Hudson SG Florida 21.6 6-5 N/A
35. Grayson Allen SG Duke 22.2 6-4 6-6½
36. Chimezie Metu PF/C USC 20.8 6-10 6-10½
37. Jevon Carter PG West Virginia 22.3 6-2 6-3
38. Devonte' Graham PG Kansas 22.9 6-2 N/A
39. Markus Howard PG Marquette 18.8 6-0 6-0
40. Landry Shamet PG Wichita St 20.8 6-4 N/A
41. Marko Simonovic PF/C Siena 18.2 7-0 N/A
42. Aaron Holiday PG UCLA 21.2 6-1 6-6
43. Jacob Evans SF Cincinnati 20.5 6-6 N/A
44. Nickeil Alexander-Walker PG Virginia Tech 19.3 6-5 6-9
45. Austin Wiley C Auburn 19.0 6-11 7-5
46. Goga Bitadze C Mega Bemax 18.4 6-11 7-2
47. Tyus Battle SG/SF Syracuse 20.3 6-7 6-8
48. O'Shae Brissett PF Syracuse 19.5 6-9 6-11
49. Rawle Alkins SG Arizona 20.2 6-5 6-9
50. Jarred Vanderbilt SF Kentucky 18.7 6-8 7-1
51. Nick Richards C Kentucky 20.1 6-11 7-5
52. PJ Washington PF Kentucky 19.4 6-8 7-3
53. Kevin Hervey SF Texas Arlington 21.5 6-7 N/A
54. Brian Bowen SF N/A 19.2 6-7 6-9
55. Arnoldas Kulboka SF Capo D'Orlando 20.0 6-10 6-11
56. Bonzie Colson PF Notre Dame 22.0 6-5 6-11½
57. Isaac Bonga SF Frankfurt 18.1 6-9 7-0
58. Allonzo Trier SG Arizona 22.0 6-5 6-7
59. Jalen Brunson PG Villanova 21.3 6-2 6-3½
60. Amine Noua PF Villeurbanne 20.9 6-8 N/A
61. Lagerald Vick SF Kansas 21.0 6-5 N/A
62. Aleksa Radanov SG FMP 19.9 6-8 N/A
63. Tony Carr PG Penn St 20.2 6-3 6-8
64. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk SG Kansas 20.6 6-8 6-5
65. Ethan Happ PF/C Wisconsin 21.6 6-10 N/A
66. Vincent Edwards SF Purdue 21.7 6-8 7-0
67. Terence Davis SG Mississippi 20.6 6-4 N/A
68. Kostas Antetokounmpo SF Dayton 20.1 6-10 7-2
69. Tryggvi Hlinason C Valencia 20.2 7-1 N/A
70. Abdoulaye N'doye PG Cholet 19.8 6-7 7-2
71. Tadas Sedekerskis SF Nevezis 20.0 6-10 6-9½
72. Alize Johnson PF Missouri St 21.7 6-9 N/A
73. Ray Spalding PF Louisville 20.8 6-10 7-1
74. Donta Hall PF/C Alabama 20.4 6-9 7-4
75. Rui Hachimura PF Gonzaga 19.9 6-8 N/A
76. Moritz Wagner C Michigan 20.7 6-11 7-0
77. DJ Hogg SF/PF Texas A&M 21.3 6-9 6-10½
78. Matur Maker C Team Loaded VA 20.0 6-10 7-2
79. Isaac Haas C Purdue 22.2 7-2 7-4
80. Matisse Thybulle SG Washington 20.8 6-5 N/A
81. Jordan Murphy PF Minnesota 20.8 6-6 N/A
82. Kostja Mushidi SG Mega Bemax 19.5 6-5 7-1
83. Karim Jallow SF Bayern Muenchen 20.7 6-7 6-8
84. Vasilis Charalampopoulos PF PAOK 21.0 6-9 N/A
85. Malik Pope SF San Diego St 21.4 6-10 7-2
86. Bryant Crawford PG Wake Forest 20.8 6-3 6-7
87. D'Marcus Simonds PG/SG Georgia St 20.2 6-3 N/A
88. Aric Holman PF/C Mississippi St. 20.5 6-10 N/A
89. Josh Okogie SG Georgia Tech 19.3 6-4 7-0
90. Maximo Fjellerup SF/PF Bahia Blanca 20.1 6-7 N/A
91. Elie Okobo PG Pau-Orthez 20.2 6-3 N/A
92. Vanja Marinkovic SG Partizan 21.0 6-7 6-7
93. Dakota Mathias SG Purdue 22.5 6-4 N/A
94. Jeffrey Carroll SF Oklahoma St 23.2 6-6 6-6½
95. Omer Yurtseven C N.C. State 19.5 7-0 7-1
96. Donte Grantham SF Clemson 22.8 6-8 N/A
97. Viny Okouo C Malaga 20.7 7-2 N/A
98. Tyler Hall SG Montana St 20.8 6-4 N/A
99. Milik Yarbrough SG/SF Illinois St 22.2 6-6 N/A
100. Theo Pinson SF North Carolina 22.2 6-6 6-11