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PostSubject: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:28 am

Multiple people I've talked that are HIGHLY connected to multiple organizations say top 3 is Garrett, Trubisky, Watson.

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CLE - Garrett at 1. They don't want Trubisky at all. Mahomes or Kizer probably their top QB, in-play at 12. Corey Davis or Gareon Conley also in play at 12.

BAL - Want to trade out of 16, first round pick probably an offensive lineman. Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson are names I've heard.

PIT - First two rounds will be pass-catcher and corner (in some order) unless something crazy happens.

CIN - Barnett the heavy favorite, but Marvin Lewis wants OJ Howard.

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NE - No clue, don't pick until the 3rd. Trey Hendrickson is their type of player.

NYJ - A trade-out is pretty likely. I've heard that they really like Garett Bolles, I think they really like Gareon Conley, probably more than Lattimore.

BUF - Interest in Trubisky is real. Might move up to 5 or 6 if they can do it without giving up a pick (IE giving up a 2nd but getting a 5th in return).

MIA - Forrest Lamp or a Defensive End. My bet is Taco Charlton.

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IND - Could be a RB or a OL but CBs Kevin King and Gareon Conley are good bets. Wouldn't rule out Reuben Foster here.

JAX - I think their pick is between QB Watson and CB Lattimore. Fournette a possibility. Will pick a QB in first 3 rounds. Will pick a FB if they take LF.

HOU - They like Savage more than they've let on. 1st round QB probably unlikely. RT and Safety are good bets here. I think BoB likes Kizer, Peterman, and Kaaya

TEN - They want to trade out of 5 and 18. They like CBs Awuzie, Conley, and King. They want another TE (Howard?). Davis probably their top WR.

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KC - QB is in play here. Andy Reid took Kevin Kolb when Donovan McNabb was the same age as Alex Smith now. CB and ILB are priorities as well.

LAC - Need a single-high FS but have a strong need at RG and RT. Bolles, Reddick, and Hooker probably the favorites for 1.07 if they don't trade it.

DEN - They have no Left Tackle and they're not being shy about their interest. I expect them to move up to take one. They'll want to get ahead of Baltimore.

LVR - In "win now" mode and have a desperate need at Linebacker. I think they're threats to move up for one of the top 3 off-ball linebackers.

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CHI - Belief is the pick is Watson or Adams. Belief is also that John Fox doesn't want a QB but Ryan Pace doesn't really care.

DET - The name I've heard is TJ Watt. Makes some sense to me but I think TE. WR, LB FS is more likely. Evan Engram is a perfect fit if they move back.

GB - Tre'Davious White, TJ Watt, and Tyus Bowser are names to watch here. Forrest Lamp as well if he makes it that far.

MIN - Malik McDowell if he's available, outside of that, I don't know anything.

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PHI - The names I've heard: Charles Harris, Marlon Humphrey, and Gareon Conley. Wouldn't rule out them trading up for one of the backs.

DAL - Everyone expects a corner. They'd take a BPA faller if someone great fell.

WAS - Biggest area of concern is on the D-Line and they'd have to take one at 17 if they want an impact guy. Could be RB, WR, or ILB else wise.

NYG - NOT Ryan Ramcyzk. Beat writer says Jarrad Davis is in play. DE probably a big priority.

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CAR - I think it's McCaffrey or Njoku. Probably will take a second TE in the top-100 if they take McCaffrey in the first.

ATL - A trade up for an End is possible, and a connection with Detroit makes sense.

TB - Could really use a Mike Linebacker. Need to get better in nickel. Really like Peppers. Could trade up in 2nd for Dalvin Cook. Njoku in play if he falls.

NO - Needs at DE, LB, CB, and deep safety.

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SEA - Probably a Defensive Back. My gut feeling is Obi. Could be a Safety (Budda?). Could be a wacky pick like Ahkello Witherspoon.

SF - No one knows anything. Only name I get from the people I trust is Mitch Trubisky.

ARZ - QB connected to them is Watson. They're in win-now mode and I don't expect a QB. Expectation is Arians leaves when Palmer and Fitz do, so new system.

LAR - Haven't heard anything, but I think it's a SAM (Watt, Bowser) or a move TE (Engram)


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Stuff I've heard about specific prospects and some random thoughts

QB

Patrick Mahomes has a slight Johnny Manziel vibe to him. Teams in NFC West and NFC North that have seen how dynamic offenses are when a QB can create in chaos will covet his play-making ability and super-natural arm talent. Physically a spitting image of Matthew Stafford. Worse in the pocket, better outside. A year or two behind Stafford's development coming out of Mark Richt's offense at Georgia, but could probably play early-on if you're OK with letting him be himself. He's not going to be a game manager.

Deshone Kizer has a strong Geno Smith vibe to him.

Davis Webb has a strong Tom Savage vibe to him.

I think the "Nathan Peterman in the 2nd" stuff is mostly bullshit, but Jacksonville at the top of the third? Yeah...

Watson slot is a hard read. If he's not picked by 4 I don't think he's going in the top 21. I think Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and a team via a trade-up in play.

Clemson beat writers and 75% of Bears beat writers think Chicago is going to pick Watson.

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RB

Belief is "multiple teams" have discussed building their offense around Leonard Fournette. Wild guess: SF, JAX, NYJ? Don't know.

Fournette's ranking dropped in the middle of the process but jumped back up late from big media. I think they've heard a team in the top 8 has him at the very top of their board.

Dalvin Cook has medical and character flags from most teams. Mixon only has character flags. He'll probably go earlier.

A lot of teams really like Toledo RB Kareem Hunt. I think he's a top-90 pick.

Connection between the Eagles and Pittsburgh RB James Conner is real and strong.

Strong connection between the Chiefs and Wyoming RB Brian Hill



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WR

Bengals gave John Ross a bill of clean health but many teams have taken him off their board.

Corey Davis exclusively visited teams in the 12-18 range. I 'd be surprised if he got passed 21.

The Steelers REALLY like Chris Godwin. Might be in-play as a shocker at 30. He's a top 64 lock.

Buffalo has a strong connection to East Carolina WR Zay Jones. In play at 2.12.

Cleveland has a strong connection with Western Kentucky WR Taywan Taylor. In play at 3.01 if they don't take Davis earlier.

Teams with really strong analytic influences in their front office are going to like LA Tech's Carlos Henderson.

No one on earth likes Cooper Kupp as much as Big Draft says they do. Consistently heard "5th round"

A team that doesn't care about media backlash is going to take Ishmael Zamora in the 4th and think they just got a WR-1. I think the Seahawks are a good bet.

Whichever team takes Trubisky will probably take Ryan Switzer. Most teams are working them out together.

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TE

I've heard about 10 or so teams that want to run 12 personnel (two TEs) as base. TEs could fly off the board once they start the third round.

Toledo's Michael Roberts, Michigan's Jake Butt, Iowa's George Kittle, and Ashland's Adam Shaheen all project as the rare I-TE teams are coveting.

The Lions have done -- a lot -- of work with Toledo's Michael Roberts.

Tennessee really likes George Kittle.

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OT

Opinions on Garett Bolles are polarizing. In a survey done by Bob McGinn, most executives picked him behind Cam Robinson and Ryan Ramczyk, but he received the most first place votes as well. The 25 year old rookie is very well liked by a few teams. Could be a top-15 pick.

The Jaguars view Cam Robinson as a top-10 player in this draft class and are probably not alone in that. If Trubisky isn't on the board, I think Buffalo really likes him as well.

Florida's David Sharpe is fat, legally blind in one eye, and probably the draft's 4th or 5th best offensive tackle. He's in play in the 2nd/3rd round range. Stuffed the Bama edge rushers all day. Reminds me of Cordy Glenn.

TCU's Aviante Collins is the kind of guy the Bengals and Seahawks irrationally like two rounds higher than every other team.

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IOL

I don't know if teams consider him a tackle or guard, but Western Michigan's Taylor Moton has posted a huge positive run grade for PFF for two straight years. Say what you want about PFF, but their college run grades have a strong correlation with success in the NFL. He's going to be very well liked by teams that have a strong analytic influence. He could be in play for Dallas at Right Tackle in the first.

Big Draft never gets a good read for the center market. I think Pat Elflein goes higher than people think.

Pittsburgh's Dorian Johnson is a fairly good bet to go ahead of Dan Feeney. He's a better fit in a man-blocking scheme. He's a strong fit for Jacksonville's vision.

I think a team is going to take LSU Center Ethan Pocic as a zone tackle.

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EDGE

Solomon Thomas is lower than people think. If he makes it out of the top-4 he has very few interested suitors. Expected he's in the 10-19 range.

Missouri's Charles Harris is seen as one of the few impact rookies. Most I've heard expect him to go ahead of Thomas.

Derek Barnett and Solomon Thomas are probably in a shared range. Some teams have Barnett higher than Thomas.

Shocker? Ohio's Tarell Basham is in play at the end of the first round. There are teams that have a first round grade on him.

Taco Charlton's best comparable players were all second rounders. If he gets by Miami at 22 he's probably headed for the 40s.

Tyus Bowser reminds many around the league of Dion Jordan, could be in play earlier than you think.

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IDL

Big media leaving Jon Allen in the top-4 is just convenience. No one knows how far he's going to fall, but he's going to fall. I think Arizona is a dream fit. Guys his size never go that early.

Many around the league believe if he had no character issues than Malik McDowell would be a top-3 pick. Is seen as a guy with A LOT of upside. All Pro potential.

After Michigan's Chris Wormley, who played anchor end in college, the perception is that there aren't any top 50 interior-defensive lineman. That could push Wormley up boards. If he goes ahead of Taco, don't be surprised.

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OBLB

So many teams have a huge need at Linebacker, and it's going to push guys up. Foster has so many flags (concussions, shoulder, combine scuffle, diluted test, and on top of everything can't visualize on a white-board, which probably takes him off the board for a lot of teams looking for a Mike...) that he's going to fall anyway.

My projected order for top-100 players:

1. Haason Reddick (6 - 19 range)
2. Jarrad Davis (18 - 24 range)
3. Raekwon McMillan (26 - 50 range)
4. Reuben Foster (33 - 50 range)
5. Zach Cunningham (40 - 60 range)
6. Duke Riley (50 - 70 range)
7. Anthony Walker (60 - 75 range)
8. Blair Brown (70 - 90 range)
9. Alex Anzalone (75 - 100 range)

I think the Raiders will try desperately to land two of the top 12 off-ball linebackers.

Teams really like Kansas State LB Elijah Lee. He seems to be every team's "plan B" in case they miss on one of the top guys.

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CB

A lot of teams have Gareon Conley as their #1 corner. If your team puts an emphasis on press-man Conley was put on an island for Ohio State with no safety in the frame most snaps. He's a decent bet to go ahead of his teammate.

Alabama's Marlon Humphrey is polarizing. Some teams have him as a top-20 player. Some don't have him in the top 40. I think New Orleans likes him.

Some teams have Kevin King as their top CB and think he has all-pro potential.

I think with all these teams running the Seattle scheme on D Utah's Brian Allen and Michigan's Jeremy Clark are going to get pushed up.

I've gotten the impression that Buffalo really likes Teez Tabor.

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SAF

Hooker might fall a little bit. Concerns he was "cherry picking" playing behind Conley and Lattimore are there, as is concern because he didn't test athletically.

Opinions on Jamal Adams vary wildly. I think he's ultimately a top-8 pick and I'd still think hard about slotting him at 3, but there are some that are expecting him to go in the teens.

I think Jabrill Peppers was going in the 15-25 range before his diluted result, and his "excuse" isn't helping him. I think he's a mid-to-late 2nd type right now. I still think Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and Detroit will be looking at him, just a round later. Could also be considered in Oakland.

Budda Baker is the kind of guy Big Draft doesn't realize is going as high as he is. I'd be shocked if he wasn't a top 25 pick. I think San Francisco really wants him in the second round if he makes it that far.

I think Marcus Maye, Josh Jones, Justin Evans, and Marcus Williams are all in that late-first-to-early-third range.


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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:51 am

If Jacksonville takes Watson at 4 lol...
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:47 am

I think the Bears will probably take Watson and save you your misery, but I've gotten the strong impression "sunk cost" is a label thrown at Bortles and top level Jacksonville management does not believe he can be saved.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:53 am

Maybe from Coughlin (its been "rumored" that he's not a Bortles fan) you do, but I get the impression that this is his last chance. And it would be much better to suck this year and grab a QB next year who can play as opposed to grabbing a QB this year who can't and still suck. If they view Cam Robinson as a top 10 player, then they should draft him because Jacksonville definitely has a bottom 5 OLine and no QB is going to win if the pass protection/run blocking continues to be bad.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:40 am

I think if they don't take Watson they'll take Lattimore and slide Ramsey into the slot in the nickel.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:31 am

I don't want to jump the gun and say anything before I look at the (youtube) tapes but from the little I've actually seen/know about Watson, I like him. Oh the DRAMA

He reminds me of Russell Wilson. Oh man

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:48 pm

I agree with Seattle's analysis. Obi and Budda sound like good fits. I've even heard of John Ross being a possibility as his stock is dropping.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:48 pm

The thing I like about Watson is his mindset. But IDK if he has the skills to make it at the next level.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:16 pm

49 MPH is very bad. Only about 8% of the guys in history that have thrown 49MPH or softer at the combine have ever made a roster. Mike Glennon is probably the best ever. It's... not a good group.

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Obviously Gareon Conley being accused of rape changes things.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:28 pm

I think Trubisky, Kizer, & Mahomes all have higher upside than Watson. Mahomes is the most interesting prospect imo, but he needs to go somewhere where he'll be coached up well and I also think he needs to sit for at least 2 years. Pittsburgh & Arizona would be a good spot for him, insanely gifted.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:31 pm

Gareon Conley's case can fuck up his stock.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:34 pm

And the only reason why people are talking about Watson is because of those 2 big games against Alabama in the CFP. Alabama always struggles with teams that play an up-tempo spread offense (see Chad Kelly). Clemson shoulda lost 2-3 games because of Watson but only won because they were 10x better than everyone else they played...
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:37 pm

*Will* probably at this late stage. I had done a mock draft recently which is probably going to change.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:35 pm

I find it humorous that the steelers are apparently starting a trend of drafting a penn state guy every year. lol
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:16 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see them draft TJ next (happy)
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:26 am

Yeah That (happy)

Feel like it's 99% San Fran is taking Adams or Fournette.

A lot of people now saying Jags/Watson talk is legit, I think so legit that they might be calling teams about trading Bortles on draft weekend, should they take Watson.

Scuttlebutt that Christian McCaffrey might end up going before 8.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:44 am

I wouldn't be shocked if it happened, but starting to think it's all smokescreen. With the amount of "leaked rumors" that the Jaguars want QB Deshaun Watson, I think they may be one of the teams who are trying to trade down.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:52 am

Wouldn't be surprising if they did a complete 180 and picked Mitchell Trubisky either Bruh......
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:23 pm

I definitely think the Jags are trying to trade down, but I don't think that means they won't take Watson if they're stuck at 4. Hard to tell what they want to do, and regardless what happens, we won't know how close they came one way or the other because if they end up trading out and Watson goes before their pick, they'll deny interest after the fact.

Rumor today is Seahawks are expected to go O-Line in the first.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:31 pm

I think Jets/Browns swap in the first makes a lot of sense. Rumor is Browns have contacted every team 4-8 about moving up. Some think it's for Trubisky, I bet they have eyes on a second top defensive player.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:42 pm

All I'm saying is that usually when a team leaks that much info about picks they usually go in another direction. San Fran & Chicago pick 2 & 3 and we still don't know what the hell they are going to with their picks. They may possibly draft Watson.

Anyways, if Jacksonville does end up taking a QB, I'd be much happier w/ Trubisky over Watson. Even if Watson does become good, I think his ceiling is an Alex Smith/Teddy Bridgewater level QB. I don't think any of these guys will be good, but Trubisky has a higher ceiling if everything clicks.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:50 pm

Also, I can see the Vikings trading into the 1st round to grab Davis Webb #FeelTheBern
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:12 pm

I think Watson's most likely outcome as a prospect is like Alex Smith/Joe Flacco range.

I think Trubisky's most likely outcome as a prospect is like an Andy Dalton/Ryan Fitzpatrick range

I don't think either one of them stands much of a chance of being a top 20 QB in the NFL, just my take.

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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:00 pm

Another thing (re: Watson to the Jags), I'm not sure why Marrone/Hackett got the promotion if this is what they're going to do, I thought those 2 only got the job because of Blake Bortles? If this is the direction they're going there is literally no reason why these 2 should still be coaching this team.
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PostSubject: Re: NFL Draft - What I've Heard   Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:43 pm

Now finding out that San Fran has real interest in Mitchell Trubisky, which may force Cleveland to draft him #1 overall or possibly trade up to grab Watson if SF does take a QB at #2
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