This is going to seem insulting... Because it's meant to be. CB knows nothing of the concept of value. He listens to a podcast and thinks he's a genius. I know tons of "fantasy experts" and very few of them know football. They're almost always fans of metrics, pro football focus, and other number gymnastics.

So, I'm going to bring use some actual numbers to insult CB. In question is my trade of Kelvin Benjamin for Knile Davis. Because apparently Knile Davis isn't a starter and Kelvin Benjamin is, I got "raped" in the trade.

Since week 3:

Kelvin Benjamin - 63 Points (7 starts)

Knile Davis - 47 Points (1 start)

So, obviously, I lost, right?

the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.

The opportunity cost being Allen Robinson, who I poached from free agency as a part of the trade. I dropped the Georgia Tech RB from the Cardinals that threw his shoe at his wife... or kid... I can't remember which.

So, I traded Kelvin Benjamin and dropped Jonathan Dwyer and acquired Knile Davis and Allen Robinson in their place.

Since the trade: Allen Robinson has 1 more target than Kelvin Benjamin, has 6 more catches, and just 38 fewer Receiving yards. The big difference? 4 touchdowns for Benjamin compared to 2 for Robinson.

3 of Benjamin's 4 touchdowns since the trade have come in garbage time for Carolina, in games they've by 3 possessions.

Red Zone targets aren't predictable. There are too many variables that go into predicting red zone success, including opponents, scheme, injuries, game flow, play calling tendencies...

Both players score the majority of their touchdowns from the 49 to the 20. Benjamin has scored three in the red zone, including one inside ten yards.

He has one total catch inside ten yards.

Targets are not searchable via splits.

In Kelvin Benjamin's case, perception is not reality. Because he's 6'5, he's deemed to be a key red zone target... but he catches just 30% of his targets in the red zone. His 30% TD Rate in the Red Zone on targets is 6th worst in the NFL among qualified Wide Receivers.

He ranks very highly (top 20) on total red zone targets, but is near the bottom of the league in conversion, and in total targets inside 10 yards.

When you take away the touchdowns, the difference between Allen Robinson and Kelvin Benjamin, since the trade, is a minimal plus to Allen Robinson. When you factor them in, you have a slight increase in projected points on average with Kelvin Benjamin but you're more likely to have a score significantly below the replacement rate, as evidenced by his two 1 point performances.

So in conclusion, it's faulty to compare Kelvin Benjamin straight up with Knile Davis. You have to compare the total change in outlook for the offense.

I got significantly better at Running Back, and I got marginally worse at Wide Receiver.


63 Points seems like a lot, right? Well, it's not. If you take away his 17 point performance in week 3, he's averaging 7.7 points per game. In a 16 team league, the maximum number of starting Wide Receivers is 48. [About 50 Wide Receivers per week score at least 5 points. About 40 Wide Receivers per week score at least 6 points.

There are 65 RBs and 70 WRs currently on rosters in the league.

For Replacement Level
The average of the 66th RB in Fantasy Football since week 3 is 0.71
The average of the 77th WR in Fantasy Football since week 3 is 2.43

For FLEX
The average of the 48th WR in fantasy football since week 3 is 5.
The average of the 48th RB in fantasy football since week 3 is 2.57

For Starts
The average of the 32nd WR in Fantasy Football since week 3 is 7.88
The average of the 32nd RB in Fantasy Football since week 3 is 6.43

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Knile Davis -- 7.83 points per week
+7.12 Above Replacement Level
+2.83 Above WR FLEX
+1.40 Above Starting RB

Allen Robinson -- 7.25 points per week
+4.82 Above Replacement Level
+2.25 Above WR FLEX
-0.63 Below Starting WR

Kelvin Benjamin -- 9 points per week
+6.57 Above Replacement Level
+4.00 Above WR FLEX
+1.12 Above Starting WR.  

Assuming that that market (League) will automatically consume all players available in waivers beyond starting levels and that claiming them is (mostly) luck...

I win in replacement level, my roster improved more than Huh's.
I win in starting flexibility, as both of my players are above FLEX.
I win in starting value. (Because I am not required to start both.)

On that note, my maximum value was 68 at FLEX whereas Huh's was 63.

Conversely, I've had five 10+ performances from them combined, whereas Benjamin has four.

So, if you value having a good roster, I won. If you value having one player, I still won, but not by a whole lot as Knile Davis so far has been better than the lowest starting RB in the league by a higher degree than Kelvin Benjamin the lowest starting WR in the league.

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When you maximize your roster by week, you ruin your flexibility to play match-ups. All players have a degree of variability and it's relative value in fantasy is most significant at RB.

20 of the 32 NFL teams have seen their presumed leading rusher heading into the season miss at least one game so far. Being guaranteed, within reasonable doubt, that I'll have the lead back in a run-first offense invaluable. But to what we can attribute value so far, I have won the trade.

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It's very possible (Although I believe highly unlikely) Kelvin Benjamin outplays his projections by such a degree that Huh wins the trade in the next four weeks... But yall motherfuckers aren't talking shit in the future, you're talking shit in the present, where I've won the trade to this point.

Nah

They know they done been told. They're speechless.

tl;dr

TL;DR is

Points at RB are more valuable than points at WR because the average WR scores more and applied concepts of opportunity cost.

You could have gotten someone better than Knile Davis, and while he's the handcuff to your RB, you could have gotten a top 30 starting RB for him. Looking at Huh's roster, if you had gotten Shane Vereen instead of Knile Davis nobody would be criticizing you.

Huh won that trade.

See, this is why I told you I didn't want to do the math because you'd look at it and say some stupid shit.

CB Nash wrote:

You could have gotten someone better than Knile Davis, and while he's the handcuff to your RB, you could have gotten a top 30 starting RB for him. Looking at Huh's roster, if you had gotten Shane Vereen instead of Knile Davis nobody would be criticizing you.

is especially stupid, but I won't bother explaining that because the last time I explained something you still said dumb shit. I'm saving myself the time. Yall can believe whatever you want.

Ian won the trade, I'll admit it. I have to stop being stubborn.

Huh won.

The reasoning as getting him as a handcuff for Charles is fine. Robinson isn't a big downgrade to take the safe route in picking up Davis. You still lost... it was just a reasonable loss to take, kinda.

Problem is, he's useless for your team other than being that safety net. I think you have yet to even start Knile Davis as a 2nd stringer, and really have had no reason to trust him over the RB's you have... the value is non-existent while Charles is active. Once Charles came back (like a week after your trade), it'd be impossible to know when he would have one of his few big games of the year. You can't always trust returns & garbage time to pull through so I'd be hesitant to start him as well, especially over your other RB's...

A lot of times he hardly even gets touches so you might as well should've picked up Theo Riddick instead, as starting him is like a lottery pick that has just happened to hit on a few weeks. Instead you lost a quality WR that would be getting you more than Allen Robinson and is more trustworthy than a few of your WR's tbh.

So nah, you lost (not got raped tbh) and Huh got himself a steal of the year. You lost small for safety, Huh won big.

You were also going to get much less value if you ever wanted to trade Knile Davis to get something you needed more later.

This is why you're missing the playoffs.

This nigga Burdur should jump off a building just to see if gravity exists.

good argument

also some of you act like kelvin is calvin johnson, he is not that good in fantasy yet lol

Huh real talk, you didn't read the argument.

Had to come back to this thread to add something as I just really hope Ian doesn't really think he won that trade.

And trust me, I completely understand the logic as I had the same reasoning for trading Sanders for Gore.

The difference is, I didn't have Charles just about to return, Ingram, T-Rich (meh but still valuable enough for his work load), Mathews. I had to do that trade... the opportunity cost argument, and basically the argument as a whole, works much better defending my trade with Drachen tbh. It doesn't make as much sense for you because your benefit is holding Knile Davis as a handcuff to Charles, on your bench, not actually using him as a starter on your team. Using your reasoning, Davis' points are almost like a sunk cost (might not be the right term I'm thinking of but there's something for it)... This is what I mean: almost all of his points this year came either on another team or on your bench. You have gained almost nothing from him to this point and have no reason to trust him in future games barring another Charles injury - therefore THAT is your benefit from it: a handcuff to Charles. Benjamin on the other hand has gotten a good amount more than Robinson. You can't reasonably say you won.

The whole garbage time argument for Benjamin is the part that shouldn't even be in there as that holds no argument at all. Knile Davis gets his fantasy points strictly in garbage time.


Anyway... Despite that reasoning, I'll still admit I lost my own trade just cause I accepted a little less than I could have out of desperation similarly to how you gave up more than you should have (to feel assured in having KC's #1 RB).

Like I said in the last post and again here, you got one good week out of Knile Davis (and one other one that you had no reason to believe would've been start-worthy, considering he got it done in garbage time / in the return game)

And of course this part is in hindsight but Knile Davis would even possibly be a free agent at this point. Patience would've been key for you but I don't blame you at all... Like I said it was a very reasonable small loss to take settling with Robinson and getting safety in Knile. You just didn't win. I've used the same exact logic in one of the early weeks of the season when I rebuilt my team (and it has benefited me more so than your trade has benefited you) but that doesn't mean Drachen didn't win in our trade.

I'm flipping one more time. Kelvin Benjamin has been more valuable to Huh than Davis to Ian. Kelvin has gotten fantasy points and wins for Huh. Ian has started Davis once and he lost so it doesn't matter if he has big games if he's riding the bench. Charles was only ruled put for one week and again, Ian lost that game.

He's still valuable in my league, with or without Charles, cause Return Yards are counted same as Rushing and Recieving lol... thus that week he ran it all the way back, he had high stock that week on that play alone lol but also got a lot of 4th Quarter Carries to rest Charles cause they was done secured in victory (think that was against the Rams, but not sure)

Allen Robinson's done for the year.

Huh won that trade.

That puts the stamp on it.

<--- We should add that smiley and code it Huh